As quoted from this study,

“According to a report by Technology Futures Inc. (TFI), by 2006, one-half of U.S. households will subscribe to broadband access, and a shift to much higher data rates in the range of 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s will have begun. By 2010, U.S. broadband penetration of 75% is likely, and 10% to 20% of U.S. households will subscribe to very high-speed-broadband. In the process, most of the local exchange carriers current investment in copper cable will be made obsolete.”

In that one paragraph (above) there is a mountain of information critical to every single person that reads this blog. The first and probably most crucial point is that somewhere around the end of this year 50% of the US households will have adopted broadband. (as defined by 200Kbps or higher)

We also are informed that we will also see a dramatic shift towards “much higher data rates” as described as 6Mbps, then 24Mbps and later 100Mbps. In the study (linked above) there is an estimated timetable as to when this is projected to happen but the incredible thing is that within the next 4 1/2 years we will only have connected approximately 75% of US households to broadband while somewhere between 10% and 20% will be connected to speeds as high as 100Mbps!

This is truly the redefinition of the term Digital Divide!

The final sentence in this amazing paragraph states that in that same timeframe the current copper infrastructure will be made largely obsolete! Even the most optimistic estimates I have read seem to indicate that we will be nowhere close to a 100% fiber deployment by that time.

Of course, this forecast (like any other forecast) can be easily dismissed as a best guess estimate, only as good as the quality of information it is based on and the quality of the person reading the information through their crystal ball. We all need to filter what we can accept in our view of reality and disallow that which might cause us to have to re-examine how we look at the world around us. I look at it as my job to ferret out these articles, examine their credibility and bring them to you for your enrichment.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.